glaurung: (Default)
Every so often, I see another media story about how a new kind of nuclear reactor that avoids all the horrible problems of the ones we have now is being studied, or a startup is looking to build one, or whatever. Don't be afraid of nuclear power, these articles proclaim, there is new, better technology that will resolve all the problems with the bad old reactors. The nuclear technologies I've seen mentioned like this make up a venn diagram of fast neutron reactors, molten salt reactors, and thorium reactors.

And these kinds of stories come from a mix of hucksterism and religion. Just as we have a religion of space enthusiasm (where solar power stations or helium 3 or whatever bullshit technology becomes the rallying cry for the religion's real goal, of having a city on the moon/Mars/in orbit, and having people permanently *Living in Space*), and the religion helps sustain huckster snake oil plutocrats who don't really care about space at all except as a way of siphoning off government subsidies and pumping up stock prices for their space technology companies -- so too we have a religion of Nuclear Power (it's the Future!), and nuclear power technology companies whose plutocrats have snake oil to sell. (PS: my data-free impression is that space enthusiasts vastly outnumber space hucksters, but for nuclear power, the ratio is much more even or perhaps reversed).

Some nuclear power advocates have at least half a leg to stand on (solar and wind are not 24/7/365 power sources, and nuclear power plants *are* a carbon-free way to provide round the clock power regardless of weather). But solar has become SO much cheaper than fossil fuel, let alone nuclear, that it leaves budgetary headroom for adding some kind of power storage to a solar farm and still being less expensive than the alternatives - and solar powered storage (like a lake that you pump full during the day and drain through hydroelectric generators at night) completely avoids all the regulatory and PR hassles of nuclear power.

Other nuclear advocates seem to Want to Believe in nuclear because they are right wing and regard solar as tainted by the leftist eco green conspiracy, or something? IDK.

But after encountering another "the new generation of (insert technical descriptor) nuclear power plants will completely avoid all the problems you've come to expect from nuclear power" article, I decided to try and figure out just how much truth there is to such articles. After picking away at the question for a while, I'm finally typing everything up so my time will not have been completely wasted. The rest of this post comes from reading far, far too many web pages (mostly on wikipedia but also elsewhere) devoted to nuclear power. Read more... )

Having read far too much and gone down far too many rabbit holes, I think I can say confidently that 90% of the claims in articles touting the bright future of new! improved! no longer dangerous or scary! nuclear power are hogwash. Things those articles tout nearly always involve making proliferation-enabling technologies routine (no one other than members of the Church of Nukes want this), assume that technologies still on the drawing board will work out as advertised (they never do), and/or gloss over many, many hard to solve problems. Meanwhile, right now, we already have the ability to just use renewables paired with energy storage. We soon won't need nuclear power anymore, yet somehow there are still scads of acolytes of the Nuclear Church who refuse to accept that their God has become irrelevant.
glaurung: (Default)
New York City's office of Emergency Management has issued a surreal and brainless PSA about what to do if a nuclear bomb goes off in the city. Let's try a youtube embed:



Set aside the chirpy presenter and the outlandish assumption that there will still be broadcasts/phone service or internet for people to stay tuned to after a bomb goes off.

If there was an actual nuclear war, either NYC would not be targeted at all (because Russia would instead be using its nukes against naval bases, air bases, missile silos, and military command centres), or it would get one bomb, which would destroy essentially the entire city, and there wouldn't be much of anyone left alive to worry about how they were supposed to tune in (Check out the map halfway down this page, showing the area of a firestorm after a standards size Russian nuke going off above Manhattan).

The PSA seems to instead be contemplating a terrorist nuclear attack using a regular A-bomb instead of an H-bomb. Fearmongers ^H^H^H security "experts" have been beating the drum about how terrorists would love to obtain a nuke and set it off in a major american city for 20 years now. My library card let me look at this paper from 2009, written by one of those "experts," which cites 2007 congressional testimony by Richard Garwin, a "true genius" who thought there was a "20 percent per year probability of a nuclear explosion with American cities and European cities included," and also cites Matthew Bunn, who estimated in 2006 "the probability of a nuclear terrorist attack over a 10-year period to be 29 percent." That means over 10 years, the first expert thinks there is a 90% probability that terrorists will blow up a city, and in the two decades since 2001, the second guy thinks the odds of a city being nuked are around 50% (see formula note below). Something seems wrong with their figures. Could it be that they don't actually have any idea of the risk and are making up high numbers in order to make things sound more scary so they can continue to make money beating the drum over nuclear terrorism? Nah, couldn't be.

Regardless, I got some maps for the destruction from a very basic nuclear bomb - the Little Boy a-bomb dropped on Hiroshima, which shot a chunk of purified U235 into a cavity in another chunk of U235. The simplicity of the design was such that the Manhattan project scientists never bothered to test it - they were certain it would work. It's possible to make a much smaller bomb (eg, the minimum yield on dial-a-yield H-bomb used in most American nukes), but that involves using more advanced techniques. For a bomb built in a garage by people without decades of expertise in bomb making to draw on, we can expect your basic Hiroshima or Nagasaki H-bomb of 15 or 20 kilotons. Here's the area destroyed by fire at Hiroshima. And here's a nukemap projection of the result of setting off the same bomb at the ground level of the Empire State Building. The 50% chance of 3rd degree burns circle there (1.8 km) is the same radius as the "2000 yard" circle in the Hiroshima map.

Basically, assuming the same size firestorm, a terrorist nuke set off in the street outside the Empire State Building would cause the entire width of Manhattan Island from 5th to 55th street to be destroyed by fire. And the staggering scale of that - from the most basic bomb that could plausibly be made in a garage by terrorists - is why all those "experts" have been so wrong for so many years. Because despite what American terrorism "experts" think, terrorists are not monsters intent on killing as many people as possible. They are politically savvy people using acts of violence to create a political effect. Terrorism is, basically, propaganda through violence. And even if they could get their hands on some plutonium or pure U235 (which would not be an easy or cheap undertaking), they know better than to do so. They know that the propaganda effect of setting off a nuke in a city would not help their cause. So they haven't tried.

But, the fearmongers continue to beat their drums, the Biden administration has not reversed course on Trump's baseless scapegoating if Iran, and the NYC office of emergency management has turned out a tone deaf and ludicrous PSA.

(Footnote: to calculate the odds of something with a per year chance happening over several years, this page says for the probability p, (1-p) to the N = the chance of it not happening at all over N years. The chance of it happening at least once is the inverse (subtract that result from 1 again). So, convert annual percent chance to decimal, subtract that decimal from 1, then raise that to the power of the number of years, then subtract from 1 to get the chance of it happening over the longer time interval.
glaurung: (Default)
As best I can tell, there have been extremely few movies that show the actual apocalypse of nuclear war. The War Game, The Day After, and Threads appear to be it. I'm going to invent a genre here and call them movies of calamity, which combines bits of tragedy and terror on a huge scale. They aren't disaster movies because they don't provide the satisfaction of seeing the Worthy Protagonists survive and prevail while everyone unworthy perishes - instead everyone suffers, worthy and unworthy alike. They aren't horror movies because the terror component does not have the pleasing feeling of being a little bit frightened while knowing that you are actually perfectly safe. Instead they seek to make you feel quite unsafe.

And the lack of pleasure, the lack of feeling safe and smugly superior to the hapless victims on the screen, is probably why nobody has made more of them. The closest I could find were some thermonuclear tragedies: Testament and When the Wind Blows.

Testament (1983) Read more... )

"When the Wind Blows" (1986) Read more... )

Moving away from calamities and tragedies, another major genre in the realm of thermonuclear war movies are the war films - productions where the focus is on the decision by leaders and generals to push the button, and then on the officers and enlisted men who carry out their orders to drop the bomb. Hollywood of course has a natural tendency to sycophantically focus on establishment leaders and adopt their point of view, so most of these films are worthless exercises in fellating the Pentagon and the establishment (Hollywood has always had a hard on for the military). The biggest exception is of course Doctor Strangelove (1964), which I won't address directly, but there are two other movies in the same theme that I watched or tried to watch.

Fail Safe (1964) Read more... )

By Dawn's Early Light (1990) Read more... )

The single biggest genre of nuclear apocalypse movies is of course the post-apocalypse story. Atomic war is just a background plot point to explain why the world has become a lawless wasteland where might makes right and the survivors are in a constant Hobbesean struggle to not become the prey of bullies who have more guns than they do. Hollywood has always loved Westerns and these movies become excuses to produce yet another Western without going to the dried out well of the 1880's yet again. I checked out one and a half examples that made it onto lists of noteworthy nuclear apocalypse movies.

Panic in Year Zero! (1962) Read more... )

Panic in Year Zero only makes sense if you accept the premise of the filmmakers that the potential for disorder, chaos, rape and murder are always there just under the surface, and that the slightest disruption to daily life will cause most people to suddenly for no reason start acting like violent sociopaths.

Despite all the evidence that in real life disasters people act rather better towards each other than they do in ordinary times, and that the natural tendency of people and communities experiencing calamity is to come together and help one other, the meme that disaster causes people to start acting like sociopaths is one that will not die in Hollywood. Hollywood is nothing if not a tool of the establishment, and thus it projects the fears and paranoia of the wealthy (who spend a lot of time worrying that one day the poor will treat them as they have been treating the poor) upon the world.

Miracle Mile (1988)

Imagine that the script for a romantic comedy about an awkward nerdy boy who meets and falls in love with a nerdy girl had a collision on the subway with a script about a boy learning, accidentally, that an all out nuclear attack will be be launched against Russia, with the inevitable consequence of a counter attack, and the world as he knows it will therefore end in 90 minutes. As word of the impending attack spreads from one person to a half dozen to the entire city, chaos, panic, and disorder break out, hugely complicating the boy's attempts to reunite with his girl and wrangle transportation for them both out of town before the bombs drop. In the end, the young couple die within yards of the place they first met the day before when the bomb blast crashes their helicopter.

Yep, this is another "disaster strips away the thin veneer of civilization" movie, with the decent into chaos happening this time before the bombs drop instead or after. I watched the first twenty minutes and the last ten and did not feel I missed anything of real interest in doing so.

And finally, we have another really crappy movie that somehow got onto lists of important nuclear holocaust movies for God knows what reason:

Special Bulletin (1983)

A group of terrorists seize a boat in the harbour of Charleston, South Carolina. They have a nuclear bomb, which they threaten to detonate if their demands are not met. In the end, they are captured or killed, but the specialists brought in to disarm the bomb fail and it detonates, destroying the city. That simple synopsis leaves out two of the things that made the film aggressively unwatchable for me.

First, the pretence that the entire made for TV movie is found footage captured from the broadcasts of one of the TV networks as it airs special news updates about the crisis. Since the narrative would have been woefully incomplete without showing the story of the terrorists, the network strings a cable into the boat and there is the pretence that the terrorists allowed TV journalists to join them on the boat to interview them and be a fly on the wall while they made their demands. Which is utterly ludicrous on its face - all activists everywhere know that you don't allow the press unrestricted access to your if you want to control your narrative and get your message out the the world undistorted.

The second thing that makes this film not just a crappy forgettable made for TV movie but a feculent and disgusting piece of right wing propaganda is the identity of the terrorists -- they are nuclear disarmament activists who are demanding that the US government give them the arming triggers to the entire US nuclear arsenal stored at the naval base in Charleston. So in the bullshit world depicted in this film, the terrorists, who at the start of the movie are battling local law enforcement with automatic weapons, are pacifists and peaceniks. Which I guess is part and parcel of TV's long history (as the tool and lapdog of the centre-right establishment) of demonizing left wing activists. But still, the ludicrous nature of this particular slander is just too ridiculous for words and make the movie too fucking stupid to watch.
glaurung: (Default)
Several years ago I saw mention of the nuclear apocalypse movie "Threads." I got a copy but didn't watch it until earlier this year. After watching it, I went online to read up on it, and suddenly found myself with several other thermonuclear apocalypse movies on my "to-watch" list. Now I finally am getting around to writing down some thoughts on each one.

In today's batch, a trio of films that take on the daunting task of trying to depict the destruction of thermonuclear warfare on cities and civilization. In chronological order:

The War Game (1965):

Read more... )

The Day After (1983).

Read more... )

Threads (1984).

Read more... )

Next time, some other nuclear holocaust films (and a book or two) that I watched or at least checked out that don't try to depict the destruction of nuclear war directly.

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